Case in point, last night's Blazers-Warriors game.
The Blazers, trailing most of the 4th quarter, made a valiant comeback in the final seconds that, it appeared, would come up just short. But, and errant inbound pass left rookies Rudy Fernandez and Anthony Marrow, alone, scrambling for a loose ball on the Blazers end of the court. Rudy had a step, and as his jersey was being pulled away from him, there was a whistle. Foul called. 2 shots. PERFECT!
Well, unfortunately for me, the foul was called on Rudy, and Marrow went to the line for 2 shots to seal the game, of which he made both. Game over. Another terrible call costs the Blazers overtime, and maybe the game.
Lame.
But, even though Greg Oden had a monster 22 point, 11 rebound, 3 block performance, this was far from the Blazers best efforts. They had plenty of opportunities to take control of the game, and just couldn't do it. Every time they got close, the Warriors would find a way into the lane, create some contact and get to the line. Nothing new here, that's Nellie-ball, and that's what happens when you play Corey Maggette at power forward. Free throws galore.
In fact, the Warriors presently lead the NBA in free throw attempts per game at just over 32 per game. On this night, they shot 35, right around their average. But, that wasn't the surprising thing.
The surprising/frustrating thing was the frequency in which they converted those attempts.
Coming in to the night, Golden State was comfortably placed 29th in the NBA in team FT% (out of 30), right around 71% as a team. So, while they get to the line more than any other team, they aren't exactly a bunch of Mark Price's at the charity stripe.
But, on this particular evening, they were. Golden State hit a remarkable 33 of 35 from the line, including 24 of 25 in the 2nd half, alone. Even notoriously awful Andres Biedrins (and his 54% career FT%) managed to hit 5 of his 6 freebies.
Out of all the dumb luck in the world, the 29th best free throw shooting team hits 94% of it's 35 free throws in what was, for all intents and purposes, a one possession basketball game. Shoot anywhere CLOSE to their season average (which would be around 25 of 35), and the Blazers have a comfortable cushion down the stretch, and likely win, which would mean a 4-1 road trip and a tie for the Northwest Division lead.
Instead, they negate a career night from Greg Oden, and head home after a respectable 3-2 trip, and trail the division leading Jazz by a single game, with 71 left to play. Not the end of the world, by any stretch, but disappointing none-the-less. That's how the cookie crumbles, I guess. One night the Warriors hit 94% of their free throws, the next, Toronto (and their 82% team FT%) will shoot 65%. It all balances out in the end.
Or does it?
Each year the league average for Free Throw Percentage is right around 74%. Not surprisingly, most team's FT%Against (or OppFT%) is right around these numbers, give or take a percentage point.
Well, so far this year, opponents of the Portland TrailBlazers are shooting a balmy 83.7% from the charity stripe, nearly 3% above their next closest "competition." Now, admittedly, it's very early in the season, and these things tend to balance out over the course of a full season. But, what makes this trend alarming is that the Blazers have been consistently at or near the top of the league in this category for the past 4 seasons. Seems like quite the coincidence, eh?
Here are the Blazers OppFT% (NBA rank) for each of the past 4 seasons:
| Season | OppFT% | Rank | NBA avg. | Diff. |
| 2008-09 | 83.7% | 1 | 76.8% | +6.9% |
| 2007-08 | 76.6% | 7 | 75.2% | +1.4% |
| 2006-07 | 77.8% | 1 | 74.2% | +3.6% |
| 2005-06 | 76.0% | 3 | 75.6% | +0.4% |
For a stat that seems like it would be the definition of random, that seems like a pretty consistent pattern over the past 4 seasons.
Usually this is where I would talk about Portland's combination of extreme youth and lack of legit NBA talent over the past 4 seasons as a reason for some excruciatingly poor statistics over that time span. But, this is OPPONENT FT %. What do you expect them to do? Try to block the shot?
But, this is obviously more than just a simple anomaly. When you are at or near the top (bottom?) of the league in a stat for 4 consecutive seasons, there has to be something behind it. Doesn't there?
So, that begs the question: Is this just flat out bad luck, or is there any rational explanation for these stats? And if there is, what (if anything) can be done to correct them?
Well, here are the only ideas/suggestions that I could come up with that might actually help:
1. Foul Harder - This is the most obvious solution, especially given the extreme pussiness of recent Blazer squads, particularly when Joel Przybilla isn't patroling the paint. Basically, the logic says that if you foul a player hard enough, they will be thinking more about the hurting you put on them, than the free throw. Logical enough, but hardly a scientific fact (how great of an experiment would that be?). While I don't think it can hurt to foul "harder", I also don't see this having much overall impact on shooting percentage as you might think. Players get fouled hard quite often, and are used to the contact (especially the ones that get to the line the most). I'd be surprised to see too much difference in the FT% of players when broken down by foul "hardness." Instead of looking to foul harder I'd look to...
2. Foul Smarter - As any avid Blazer fan can tell you, they get called for more "ticky-tack" fouls (i.e. fighting for position off the ball, fighting through screens, little bumps on the ball-handler when he's not attacking the basket, etc.) than any NBA team I've ever seen. It's patently absurd. Some may fall under the "unfortunate calls" category, but for the most part these fouls are due to poor defense more than anything. But, you may ask, why do these "ticky-tack" fouls lead to better foul shooting than, say, shooting fouls? For two reasons.
First, because it tends to lead to an inflated number of fouls in a period, meaning earlier trips to bonus land, free throws coming in bunches, and thus a better chance of a team or player getting "hot" from the line (also known as a rhythm). Give an NBA player 2 shots from the same spot, and they'll usually hit at least 1 out of 2. But, give them 8 shots from the same spot over the course of 5 minutes, and they'll probably hit 6 or 7, just from the sheer repitition of the action. (Why do you think Shaq "makes them when they count"? Because if he can stand there and shoot 6 in 40 seconds at the end of the game, he can usually "find his stroke" by the 3rd or 4th shot.)
Second, these "ticky-tack" fouls usually put the shooter at the line in a much calmer state than a typical shooting foul. Think about it. When a player is driving to the basket (or even shooting a jump shot), he is exerting maximum physical effort to do so. He's also getting his adrenaline pumping a lot more so than dribbling around the wing or setting a screen. Fouling someone in these situations puts them at the free throw line as they are trying to recover/come down from the excitement of the last play. Even though these are professional athletes in peak physical condition, you can't tell me that they don't get their heart rate up a little higher when they are driving hard to the rim, deciding whether to shoot or pass, while being hounded by not only their own defender but with a 7 foot tall monster bearing down on them as well. Follow that with some hard contact and you have quite the swing in intensity in the few seconds between the foul and the free throws. Compare that to the relatively mundane trip to the line that follows a foul called off the ball and on the wing for hand-checking, in which everyone nonchelantly strolls to the line, similar to a shooting drill at the end of practice. Which scenario would YOU shoot better in?
3. Talk More Trash - While I do think both of the above suggestions have merit, they only deal with the physical side of foul shooting. What that doesn't take into consideration is the mental aspect of standing all alone on that little line. Think that's not a big deal? Ask Nick Anderson whether he thinks free throw shooting is more about physical ability or mental toughness/focus. Sure, you'll probably get more tears than answers, but that's basically the point. Free throw shooting is at least as much about the mental side as the physical side. Put me in an empty gym and I'll hit 85 out of a 100 from the line. Put me in an NBA arena, with 20,000 fans, and I'd be lucky to hit 40. Sure these are pros, but they still are susceptable to head games. Just ask Nick.
So, what is a team to do to disrupt the mental aspect of it's oppnents? Simple. Talk trash. Lots of it. It's not rocket science, but it is definitely foreign ground for a team that has to be one of the nicest teams in the NBA. While I have no direct proof that trash talking "works", I do know that the Boston Celtics talks more trash than any other team I witnessed last season. Every single free throw shot by Portland would mean that we'd have to wait a moment while Rajon Rondo took a stroll around the court, giving each and every teammate an idividual greeting. Meanwhile, KG would be clapping his hands loudly and, I can only assume, shouting a string of explitives and put downs that would make an ordinary man walk off the court in dispair. Of course, at while all this is happening, you have Ray Allen or Paul Pierce whisperi unmentionalbe things about family pets into their ear moments before they get the ball from the ref. With all this going down on each trip to the line, it's no wonder Celtic opponents shot a miserable 74.3% from the line, good for 4th worst (best?) in the NBA, and nearly 2.5% lower than Blazer opponents. The other teams in the bottom five? Rasheed and the Pistons ("Dat ball don't lie!"), New York, Houston, and the Denver Thuggets. You think there is a shortage of trash talking with those 5? Neither do I.
So, is this "trend" troubling? Well, it's hard to say. While I think there are definitely reasons behind the Blazers perennial woes "defending" free throws, I'm not sure if it's possible to really "fix" it. But, it is definitely worth paying attention to as the season progresses.
