Blazers 1st Qtr Review: Bingo, Bango, Bongo!

Before the 2008-09 NBA season began, I looked at the daunting first 24 games of the Blazers schedule, and concluded that if they managed to be at (or very near) .500 after those 24 games, then they would be a near lock to make the playoffs. That's how tough the first part of their schedule is. If you don't believe me, here are some fun facts:

• 1st team in NBA history to start the season against 5 straight 50 win teams from the previous year (4 on the road)
• 16 of 24 on the road (66%, highest in NBA)
• 6 back-to-backs, all with at least one road game involved
• One 4 week span that includes 2 5-game road trips and only 4 total home games
• Road games include trips to: Boston, Detroit, New Orleans, Phoenix (twice), Orlando, Utah (twice) and the lakers; while home dates welcomed the likes of: San Antonio, Houston, New Olreans, Orlando and Miami

If that's not the toughest first 24 games in the NBA history, it's gotta be in the running. To start a season off with that stretch of games would likely humble the most veteran of teams, but to thrust this gauntlet on the 2nd youngest team in the league (and still one of the youngest in NBA history) is downright cruel.

I was truly hoping for a 1-4 start, and 10-12 wins over the first 24. That would put them in the "do-able" situation of needing to find 34-32 wins in their last 58 games (55-58%) to hit the 46 wins I thought it'd take to sneak into the playoffs in the West. With such a young and talented group of players, it seemed logical that the Blazers would improve throughout the season, and start hitting their stride once the schedule lightened up, and Greg Oden got his sea-legs. Even with the ups and downs of a young team, winning a little over half their games down the stretch seemed reasonable.

That made for a relatively simple plan of action: Simply survive the first 24, then make your run down the stretch.

Well, to say the Blazers have "survived" their first 24 games would be the understatement of the year in the NBA. With 22 games in the books, the Blazers are sitting comfortably in 2nd place out West, with a sparkling 15-7 record. They are undefeated at home (7-0) and have a winning record on the road (8-7). Those 2 5-game roadies? Passed with flying colors, having amassed a tidy little 7-3 record in those 10 games. With 2 games left in the hellish first 24, the Blazers are assured of finishing no worse than 15-9. .500 be damned.

Now, in order to meet that 46 win plateau I had hoped for in October, the Blazers must win 31 of their final 60, or just about half. Considering the 34 remaining home dates and the Blazers new-found comfort on the road, I'd be absolutely flabbergasted if they don't reach that mark.

Of course, it's still quite early in the season, and things are bound to change drastically. In fact, with the Nuggets acquiring Chauncey Billups, they already have. Now, the Nuggets (who seemed destined for the #9 spot coming into the season) are looking like legit contenders, and with Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio refusing to go away, 50 wins is once again looking like the magic number out West.

So, with roughly 1/4 of the schedule in the books, there's still a lot of basketball left to be played, and we've only just begun sorting out the playoff picture in the wild wild West. Trades will be made, injuries will (unfortunately) occur, and countless big shots will be made. Because, just like last year, the Western Conference should be a dogfight, all the way down to the final days. Until then, uncertainty will reign supreme.

But, at the quarter pole of NBA season, there is one thing that can be said for certain: The Portland TrailBlazers have arrived as one of the Western elite, and they've brought with them a suitcase, a sleeping bag and a toothbrush. Let's just say, they're planning on staying for a while.

OppFT%. WTF?

I try not to make excuses for "my teams" (like I'm actually on the team, right?) when they lose close games. Sure, I'll bitch and moan about a bad call that could have swayed the game, but I'll also try to keep things in perspective and realize that if they would have played tougher down the stretch, executed better in the 2nd quarter, or made open shots, that the game wouldn't have come down to a blown call or lucky bounce.

Case in point, last night's Blazers-Warriors game.

The Blazers, trailing most of the 4th quarter, made a valiant comeback in the final seconds that, it appeared, would come up just short. But, and errant inbound pass left rookies Rudy Fernandez and Anthony Marrow, alone, scrambling for a loose ball on the Blazers end of the court. Rudy had a step, and as his jersey was being pulled away from him, there was a whistle. Foul called. 2 shots. PERFECT!

Well, unfortunately for me, the foul was called on Rudy, and Marrow went to the line for 2 shots to seal the game, of which he made both. Game over. Another terrible call costs the Blazers overtime, and maybe the game.

Lame.

But, even though Greg Oden had a monster 22 point, 11 rebound, 3 block performance, this was far from the Blazers best efforts. They had plenty of opportunities to take control of the game, and just couldn't do it. Every time they got close, the Warriors would find a way into the lane, create some contact and get to the line. Nothing new here, that's Nellie-ball, and that's what happens when you play Corey Maggette at power forward. Free throws galore.

In fact, the Warriors presently lead the NBA in free throw attempts per game at just over 32 per game. On this night, they shot 35, right around their average. But, that wasn't the surprising thing.

The surprising/frustrating thing was the frequency in which they converted those attempts.

Coming in to the night, Golden State was comfortably placed 29th in the NBA in team FT% (out of 30), right around 71% as a team. So, while they get to the line more than any other team, they aren't exactly a bunch of Mark Price's at the charity stripe.

But, on this particular evening, they were. Golden State hit a remarkable 33 of 35 from the line, including 24 of 25 in the 2nd half, alone. Even notoriously awful Andres Biedrins (and his 54% career FT%) managed to hit 5 of his 6 freebies.

Out of all the dumb luck in the world, the 29th best free throw shooting team hits 94% of it's 35 free throws in what was, for all intents and purposes, a one possession basketball game. Shoot anywhere CLOSE to their season average (which would be around 25 of 35), and the Blazers have a comfortable cushion down the stretch, and likely win, which would mean a 4-1 road trip and a tie for the Northwest Division lead.

Instead, they negate a career night from Greg Oden, and head home after a respectable 3-2 trip, and trail the division leading Jazz by a single game, with 71 left to play. Not the end of the world, by any stretch, but disappointing none-the-less. That's how the cookie crumbles, I guess. One night the Warriors hit 94% of their free throws, the next, Toronto (and their 82% team FT%) will shoot 65%. It all balances out in the end.

Or does it?

Each year the league average for Free Throw Percentage is right around 74%. Not surprisingly, most team's FT%Against (or OppFT%) is right around these numbers, give or take a percentage point.

Well, so far this year, opponents of the Portland TrailBlazers are shooting a balmy 83.7% from the charity stripe, nearly 3% above their next closest "competition." Now, admittedly, it's very early in the season, and these things tend to balance out over the course of a full season. But, what makes this trend alarming is that the Blazers have been consistently at or near the top of the league in this category for the past 4 seasons. Seems like quite the coincidence, eh?

Here are the Blazers OppFT% (NBA rank) for each of the past 4 seasons:












Trust me it's there....

Just a little farther....
















































I should really get this formatting stuff worked out...























































Almost there!

Season	OppFT%	Rank	NBA avg.	Diff.
2008-09	83.7%	1	76.8%	+6.9%
2007-08	76.6%	7	75.2%	+1.4%
2006-07	77.8%	1	74.2%	+3.6%
2005-06	76.0%	3	75.6%	+0.4%

For a stat that seems like it would be the definition of random, that seems like a pretty consistent pattern over the past 4 seasons.

Usually this is where I would talk about Portland's combination of extreme youth and lack of legit NBA talent over the past 4 seasons as a reason for some excruciatingly poor statistics over that time span. But, this is OPPONENT FT %. What do you expect them to do? Try to block the shot?

But, this is obviously more than just a simple anomaly. When you are at or near the top (bottom?) of the league in a stat for 4 consecutive seasons, there has to be something behind it. Doesn't there?

So, that begs the question: Is this just flat out bad luck, or is there any rational explanation for these stats? And if there is, what (if anything) can be done to correct them?


Well, here are the only ideas/suggestions that I could come up with that might actually help:

1. Foul Harder - This is the most obvious solution, especially given the extreme pussiness of recent Blazer squads, particularly when Joel Przybilla isn't patroling the paint. Basically, the logic says that if you foul a player hard enough, they will be thinking more about the hurting you put on them, than the free throw. Logical enough, but hardly a scientific fact (how great of an experiment would that be?). While I don't think it can hurt to foul "harder", I also don't see this having much overall impact on shooting percentage as you might think. Players get fouled hard quite often, and are used to the contact (especially the ones that get to the line the most). I'd be surprised to see too much difference in the FT% of players when broken down by foul "hardness." Instead of looking to foul harder I'd look to...

2. Foul Smarter - As any avid Blazer fan can tell you, they get called for more "ticky-tack" fouls (i.e. fighting for position off the ball, fighting through screens, little bumps on the ball-handler when he's not attacking the basket, etc.) than any NBA team I've ever seen. It's patently absurd. Some may fall under the "unfortunate calls" category, but for the most part these fouls are due to poor defense more than anything. But, you may ask, why do these "ticky-tack" fouls lead to better foul shooting than, say, shooting fouls? For two reasons.

First, because it tends to lead to an inflated number of fouls in a period, meaning earlier trips to bonus land, free throws coming in bunches, and thus a better chance of a team or player getting "hot" from the line (also known as a rhythm). Give an NBA player 2 shots from the same spot, and they'll usually hit at least 1 out of 2. But, give them 8 shots from the same spot over the course of 5 minutes, and they'll probably hit 6 or 7, just from the sheer repitition of the action. (Why do you think Shaq "makes them when they count"? Because if he can stand there and shoot 6 in 40 seconds at the end of the game, he can usually "find his stroke" by the 3rd or 4th shot.)

Second, these "ticky-tack" fouls usually put the shooter at the line in a much calmer state than a typical shooting foul. Think about it. When a player is driving to the basket (or even shooting a jump shot), he is exerting maximum physical effort to do so. He's also getting his adrenaline pumping a lot more so than dribbling around the wing or setting a screen. Fouling someone in these situations puts them at the free throw line as they are trying to recover/come down from the excitement of the last play. Even though these are professional athletes in peak physical condition, you can't tell me that they don't get their heart rate up a little higher when they are driving hard to the rim, deciding whether to shoot or pass, while being hounded by not only their own defender but with a 7 foot tall monster bearing down on them as well. Follow that with some hard contact and you have quite the swing in intensity in the few seconds between the foul and the free throws. Compare that to the relatively mundane trip to the line that follows a foul called off the ball and on the wing for hand-checking, in which everyone nonchelantly strolls to the line, similar to a shooting drill at the end of practice. Which scenario would YOU shoot better in?

3. Talk More Trash - While I do think both of the above suggestions have merit, they only deal with the physical side of foul shooting. What that doesn't take into consideration is the mental aspect of standing all alone on that little line. Think that's not a big deal? Ask Nick Anderson whether he thinks free throw shooting is more about physical ability or mental toughness/focus. Sure, you'll probably get more tears than answers, but that's basically the point. Free throw shooting is at least as much about the mental side as the physical side. Put me in an empty gym and I'll hit 85 out of a 100 from the line. Put me in an NBA arena, with 20,000 fans, and I'd be lucky to hit 40. Sure these are pros, but they still are susceptable to head games. Just ask Nick.

So, what is a team to do to disrupt the mental aspect of it's oppnents? Simple. Talk trash. Lots of it. It's not rocket science, but it is definitely foreign ground for a team that has to be one of the nicest teams in the NBA. While I have no direct proof that trash talking "works", I do know that the Boston Celtics talks more trash than any other team I witnessed last season. Every single free throw shot by Portland would mean that we'd have to wait a moment while Rajon Rondo took a stroll around the court, giving each and every teammate an idividual greeting. Meanwhile, KG would be clapping his hands loudly and, I can only assume, shouting a string of explitives and put downs that would make an ordinary man walk off the court in dispair. Of course, at while all this is happening, you have Ray Allen or Paul Pierce whisperi unmentionalbe things about family pets into their ear moments before they get the ball from the ref. With all this going down on each trip to the line, it's no wonder Celtic opponents shot a miserable 74.3% from the line, good for 4th worst (best?) in the NBA, and nearly 2.5% lower than Blazer opponents. The other teams in the bottom five? Rasheed and the Pistons ("Dat ball don't lie!"), New York, Houston, and the Denver Thuggets. You think there is a shortage of trash talking with those 5? Neither do I.

So, is this "trend" troubling? Well, it's hard to say. While I think there are definitely reasons behind the Blazers perennial woes "defending" free throws, I'm not sure if it's possible to really "fix" it. But, it is definitely worth paying attention to as the season progresses.

Wow.

I think Brandon Roy is good, but I can't tell. Maybe there is a clue in this video from last nights game vs. the Rockets.



I had the pleasure of attending the early candidate for NBA Game of the Year; last night's Blazers/Rockets overtime masterpiece at the Rose Garden.

I won't say I left the game speechless ("That was fucking DIRTY!" and "Wow!" both count as prmitive forms of speech), but my ability to form coherent thoughts that didn't end in an exclamation point was severely hampered up until about 15 minutes ago.

And thinking back on it now, I'm not sure my full range of speaking-motion has totally returned. I can still come up with only one way to describe the events that transpired during the final 1.9 seconds of that game:

WOW.

The last 2 seconds of that game took me on an emotional roller coaster that made the stock market over the past month look like a bastion of stability in comparison.

Since I'm still not quite ready to discuss this game fully, let me just give you a quick recap of my emotions, and the things the ran through my head (and out my mouth) at that exact moment:

1.9 seconds left: "Brandon Roy! Game winner! Over Artest! Suck it Rockets! You got NOTHING!!!" (Happiness: 9.7 out of 10)

0.8 seconds left: "What the shit?!?! Motherfucking Yao Ming with the turnaround jumper... and 1? You've got to be kidding. After ALL THAT. And, goddamn you, Bennett Salvatore! I knew you'd screw us in the end!" (Happiness: 0.2/10)

0.0 seconds left: "AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!! HE MADE IT!!!! I CAN'T BELIEVE HE MADE THAT!!!! "AAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!" Furious high-fiving ensues. (Happiness: 11.3/10)



Yeah, that was fun.

Managing Expectations

Now that I've had a couple days to come down from my Blazer induced high, I think I might be able to begin to put things in perspective.

I finished my last post literally seconds before I headed out to watch the first Blazers preseason game, and was so amped up for my first chance to see Oden and Rudy and the rest of the team I'd been following religiously throughout the off-season that I could hardly contain myself. This was going to be my first chance to see them all in real, honest, NBA action. I had visions of Oden dunking on unsuspecting mortals, and Rudy flying through the air catching alley-oops with ease. I pictured LaMarcus and Roy being their usual outstanding selves, and the Blazers to flash their potential brilliance throughout the night.

Now, did I EXPECT that to happen? Well, sorta. I knew I was on the optimistic side of things, but it wasn't like I was expecting perfection. I knew there would be growing pains. I knew we'd play 3 or 4 guys that have virtually no chance of even making the roster. I also knew that with all the hype surrounding the team (Oden and Rudy in particular) I was bound to be let down at some point. I mean, it's the FIRST PRESEASON game, right?

Well, somehow, some way, this young Blazers team performed even better than I could have ever imagined in that first game together. Oden dunked on a few heads, and got to throw one back in the face of Spencer Hawes (a sight that will never, ever, get old). Rudy exploded with the most incredible 6 points and 5 assists in NBA history, including being on the giving and receiving end of multiple alley-oops, throwing a bounce pass through Jason Thompson's legs for a dunk, and making Martell Webster look like the second coming of Kenny "Sky" Walker (We'll assume that's a good thing for the moment). All the while, Brandon was being Brandon, LaMarcus overcame a slow start to lead the team in scoring, Joel grabbed a "quiet" 12 boards off the bench, and of all people Sergio Rodriguez hit 3 3-pointers in the 2nd quarter alone! (Which I believe is 4 more than he hit all of last year. Figure that one out.)

Simply put, it was everything every Blazer fan wanted to see, and much, much more. The Rose Garden was rocking all night long, with chants of "Rudy!" seemingly popping up every few moments, just for the fun of it. It was preseason Blazer nirvana. If people were cautiously optimistic heading in to the game, they were unabashedly cocky leaving it.

Of course, tossing caution to the wolves comes with it's drawbacks as well.

Now, all the people preaching patience with this young team are all of a sudden predicting a deep playoff run THIS season. Those who thought a division title was a possibility are now starting to whisper the C-word. I've actually heard people debating the likelihood of Rudy, Oden and Bayless finishing 1-2-3 in the ROY voting, with Rudy sneaking into the MVP discussion!

Now, I'm one of the biggest Blazer homers you'll find, but that talk is practically bordering on clinical insanity! It was one (albeit impressive) PRESEASON GAME, people! Of course, it was impossible to NOT get caught up in the excitement of the moment. It was undeniable. The Blazers were back!

However, when expectations get raised so high right out of the gate, there is the inevitable let down that comes soon after. For Blazer fans, that let down came exactly 24 hours later. They looked sloppy, young, and inexperienced in an ugly home loss to a mediocre Warriors team. Sure, Oden, Rudy and LaMarcus still had their moments (while Roy sat this one out), but on the whole, it served as a stark reminder that talent and potential aren't necessarily the most important things when it comes to winning in the NBA. This team still has a ways to go before it's ready to compete at the highest levels night in and night out.

Since then, the team has been nicked up a bit, and has put forth a couple more up and down performances. Greg Oden has looked anywhere from absolutely dominating, to tired, lost and in over his head. Meanwhile, instant fan favorite Rudy Fernandez hasn't played due to a sprained ankle suffered in the loss to Golden State. Roy has played sporadically, and Aldridge has been largely unchallenged in his short stints on the court.

So, what can we take from all this? Well, not much really. Lost in all the hullabaloo of the first game was the reality that this is, indeed, preseason basketball. While each team is undoubtedly trying their hardest to win the games, it's more about trying new lineups, getting used to your new teammates, and simple conditioning than it is about winning and losing.

While some might be disillusioned by the inconsistency in Greg Oden's scoring ("why is he shooting all those jump hooks?!!? Dunk it Greg!"), or in his apparent lack of NBA-level conditioning ("why can't he play more than 20 minutes?"), you have to see these games for what they really are. Glorified scrimmages.

In essence, we're talking about practice, folks. (Practice?!?!!) Yes, Mr. Iverson, practice.

So, while you can definitely learn things from these preseason games (Greg Oden is big. Rudy can dunk. Etc.), try not to get too high or low from them. What we see on the court now is a far cry from what we'll see opening night in the Staples Center. So, if you want to prevent yourself from having a Blazer induced coronary, I'd recommend sitting back, enjoying the show, and giving this incredibly young team at least a few weeks of real, honest to goodness NBA regular season basketball before you start making assumptions as to what this team (and it's players) are capable of. You'll thank me later.

I Have A Fever

And the only prescription?

More Blazers.

Tonight I get to finally go to my favorite pharmacy, the Rose Garden. There, the pharmacists will be passing out drugs like candy, and I'll be swallowing them down by the handful. And, while it will do wonders to quell my rising fever in the short term, in the end it'll just make me an addict.

Unfortunately, unlike most addicts, I will have an addiction to more than just one simple, over the counter drug. I'll most likely be hooked on a cocktail of drugs so powerful and so diverse that it'd take a team of doctors years to concoct an antidote.

But, I have absolutely zero interest in an anecdote. Seriously, who in there right mind wouldn't want to consume as much Blazer as possible? It's the greatest drug you'll ever get a taste of, and it's absolutely FREE! All you need to do is sit back, take a deep breath, and huff as much Blazer info as possible. Then exhale, and enjoy a sudden rush of uncontrollable excitement, followed by an intense feeling of euphoria as you lie back and giggle to yourself at the thought of Greg Oden dunking on a hapless Andrew Bynum, or Rudy Fernandez flying towards the hoop as he catches a mesmerizing alley-oop from fellow Spaniard Sergio Rodriguez!

Of course, that's just the low-level, street quality stuff. Now that the Blazers are "in season", you can pony up a little cash, get yourself some cable television and feast on the very quality "Comcast" strain. It's great for first time users (hooray for gateway drugs!), and will never leave you unsatisfied. With this strain, you get the same rush of uncontrollable excitement followed by intense euphoria, only the excitement isn't so "sudden" as it comes at you in 4 distinct stages, and lasts over 2 hours. Each stage (or "quarter" as it's called on the streets) brings a higher and higher level of excitement, finally reaching a level of excitement SO high that you will lose complete control over your body, and begin to randomly high five every person you can find. This extreme level of excitement then leads to a very similar feeling as the street drug, although in the Comcast strain, it lasts for upwards of a day. It also has the peculiar habit of bringing back bursts of excitement whenever you encounter someone else on the same drug as you.

The Comcast strain is very good. It comes highly recommended from even the most seasoned Blazer users. While other options may offer a more intense "high" and a overall greater feeling of euphoria, no strain is more readily available in the Portland metro area than the "Comcast" variety. (Note: For users outside of the Portland metro area, call you local dealers and DEMAND that they begin carrying this strain. While the dealers might balk at the cost, there IS demand, and they will turn a profit. These drugs practically sell themselves!)

The next step up brings you to the top end stuff. First we'll start with the common (and quite fantastic in it's own right) "Live Game" Blazer strain that has caused more serious, lifelong addiction than any drug I've ever encountered. While Comcast can be a gateway to other drugs (watch out for the incredibly powerful "Ducks", a common stepping stone drug) , the Live Game will really get you cracked out on Blazer. It's the stuff I rode hard last year, and really made me appreciate the nuances of the different Blazers. It gave me a whole new appreciation for the differences in the quality and impact of each strain.

It completely changed my life. It made me feind for Blazer, and not just any ol' run of the mill Blazer. It made me threaten to live outside my means just so I could get the greatest fix possible.
Because, if you really want the good stuff (and I mean the GOOOOD stuff) you gotta go straight to the source. You gotta get that real nice "Season Ticket" Blazer. While I've never tried it before, I've heard nothing but good things. An unparalleled rush, and a high so high, that you may truly never come down.

And guess, what? I got the hookup on some good Season Ticket stuff, and I'm about to try it tonight for the first time. And this might be some of the strongest Blazer anyone has seen in quite a while.

Boy, I can't wait.