NBA Preview Part III: Awards

Disclaimer: This “preview” (and I use the term loosely) is very off the cuff, and contains virtually no research. It’s simply my gut feelings regarding this upcoming NBA season. I tried to be “Fair & Balanced”, but as Fox News has shown, that’s usually a sign that biases are running rampant. On that note, here are my thoughts on the 2008-09 NBA Postseason Awards. Enjoy.

Note: All awards will be outlined using a “tier system”. Then, at the end, I’ll use my mighty prognostication skills to predict what I think the end of season ballot might look like. Not too complicated. Just follow closely and try not to get hurt.

In case you missed it, be sure to check out Part I: The Western Conference and Part II: The Eastern Conference.

Most Valuable Player

Front-runners

Chris Paul

LeBron James

To me, it’s a two man race. Both of these guys deserved the award last year, and both are only going to be better this year. If I had to guess, it’ll come down to whose team has the better record. My bet is on CP3’s Hornets to finish a couple games ahead of LBJ’s Cavs, so I have him as a very tentative start on the pole position. Of course, the wild card is if LeBron pulls out some sort of nasty stat line in the 32-8-8 range and simply statistically overpowers Paul. Not exactly out of the question. Although, also, don’t discount the revenge factor after LBJ beat CP3 at his own Bowling Challenge. CP3 takes his bowling seriously. Very seriously.

The Stalwarts

Kevin Garnett

kobe bryant

Tim Duncan

All three of these players have won the award in the past and have been absolute locks for the All-NBA 1^st or 2^nd team since the turn of the century. Also, each player’s team is expected to be a favorite to finish the season with the best record and/or an NBA championship. Mathematically speaking, it breaks down like this (Superstar Player + Championship Level Team = MVP Candidate). Simple as that.

The Also-rans

Dwyane Wade

Dwight Howard

Amare Stoudamire

To be perfectly honest, I don’t think anyone outside of the Top 5 listed above have much of a chance. Not because there aren’t any other players deserving of consideration, but simply because there are only so many championship caliber teams. Wade, Howard and Stoudamire are all capable of putting up eye-popping, MVP-caliber numbers, but will likely do so on a team that finishes in the 4-8 range in their respective conferences. So, while individually they might deserve serious consideration, I just can’t see them beating out any of the 5 players listed above, who all figure to be on significantly better teams than any of the squads represented by this trio.

Keep An Eye On

Deron Williams

Chris Bosh

Elton Brand

Brandon Roy

Let’s get this out there right now. None of these guys are going to win the MVP this year. It’s just not gonna happen. But, I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the 3 youngsters (Williams, Bosh, and Roy) take home the award sometime in the next decade. So, while they might be a couple years away from seriously contending for the leagues top individual award, a surprise Top 2 finish by the Jazz, Raptors, 76ers or Blazers could give their stars a shot at cracking the discussion. Brand gets thrown in the conversation because he’ll get a majority of the credit if the 76ers make the jump to an elite team (and rightly so).

MY VOTE

1. LeBron James

2. Chris Paul

3. Kevin Garnett

4. Dwyane Wade

5. Tim Duncan

Rookie of the Year

Leading Contenders

Greg Oden

Michael Beasley

This season’s Rookie of the Year award looks to be a classic example of Stats vs. Wins. Everyone expects (and rightly so) for Beasley to put up easily the best stats of all the rookies. He’s the most NBA ready player, coming off one the best freshman seasons in NCAA history, and is on a team that will sorely need both his scoring and his rebounding prowess. Given the past history of the award, the biggest stat stuffer is a virtual lock for taking home the prize, and that should be Beasley. However, if anyone can overcome that perceived bias, it’s Oden. He’s been hyped as a once-in-a-generation center who can affect the game greatly on both ends of the court. He’s also the centerpiece of a team many have tabbed as the most likely “breakout” candidate for this season. If the Blazers meet or exceed expectations, and Oden proves to be a big reason for that, this might be the season the ROY voters buck the historical trend and recognize the rookie who impacts the game beyond the box score.

The Also-Rans

Derrick Rose

OJ Mayo

Rudy Fernandez

Kevin Love

Eric Gordon

With this being universally declared a 2 man race, I find it hard to imagine any of these players walking away with the rookie hardware. Of course, having said that, there’s always the chance that everyone and their brother is wrong. Heck, the more these supposed “experts” narrow the debate down to Beasley and Oden, the more I get the feeling that we’re in for a surprise. That being said, I wouldn’t bet a single cent of my own money on anyone besides the frontrunners. So, consider this the leading contenders for the #3 spot on the ballot.

MY VOTE

1. Greg Oden

2. Michael Beasley

3. Derrick Rose

4. OJ Mayo

5. Rudy Fernandez

Defensive Player of the Year

The Stalwarts

Kevin Garnett

Ron Artest

Marcus Camby

Tim Duncan

If Ben Wallace were still alive, he’d be on this list as well. It’s basically the 4 (5 if you count the late Big Ben) players who have won (or in Duncan’s case, should have won) this award over the past decade. Since this award is based more off of reputation than any of the others, it’s safe to assume that one of these 4 will be the heavy favorite come seasons end.

The Young Guns

Dwight Howard

Chris Paul

Rajon Rondo

Josh Smith

Of course, at some point, the old regime has to give away to the young guys. If that were to happen this year, these are the guys I’d peg as the most likely successors. Howard and Paul are already among the NBA’s elite, and are dominant at the defensive measuring stick categories usually associated with their positions (Blocks and Steals, respectively). Meanwhile, Rondo used the Celtics Championship run to build his rep as one of the up and coming defensive game changers in the NBA, and Smith is just an all around stat whore on the defensive end. So, if someone is going to break through and shake things up in the DPOY race, I’d put my money on one of these 4.

MY VOTE

1. Kevin Garnett

2. Ron Artest

3. Chris Paul

4. Tim Duncan

5. Dwight Howard

Coach of the Year

Front-runners

Nate McMillan

Jerry Sloan

Maurice Cheeks

Rick Adelman

The Coach of the Year award is just as much of a team award as a coaching award. The winners generally fall in to two categories: Either an up and coming team who surpasses expectations or a team that just flat out dominates the competition. Usually the People are already calling for break out seasons from Portland and Philly, so Nate McMillan and Mo Cheeks get on the preseason short list. Also included is sentimental favorite Jerry Sloan, who’s Utah team should be near the top of the standings, and is long deserving of the accolade. And, rounding out the Frontrunners, is Rick Adelman, who should receive serious consideration if he’s able to handle Ron Artest and lead Houston to the heights of the loaded West.

The Stalwarts

Phil Jackson

Byron Scott

Gregg Popovich

All three are likely to be leading playoff teams to lofty heights, and all 3 have the pedigree and reputation to take home the prize if their teams are able to come out on top of the West.

Dark Horses

Terry Porter

Rick Carlisle

Eric Spoelstra

Mike D’Antoni

There’s always a surprise candidate in the race for COY, and these four have been put in charge of teams with expectations that have greatly diminished over the past year. That means that they have rosters with enough talent to compete, but just need to make it happen. If one of these guys can make it work, expect them to get serious mention come award season.

No

Mike Brown

In case you didn’t know, I’m not a fan of Mike Brown’s work on the sidelines. I’ve seen better offenses run by city league teams without a coach. I’m pretty sure he knows some dirty little secret about LeBron and is blackmailing him to keep his job. That would at least explain why he always looks like someone is about to tell on him when he’s “coaching.” (I say “coaching”, because it’s obvious LeBron makes all the decisions out on the court.)

Most Improved Player

Of all the awards, this is easily the most difficult to predict. Each year there are a host of young players who seem poised to make the proverbial “jump” and become a star. These are the players who get the bulk of preseason attention for this award. However, it seems almost every season the eventual winner is someone who seemingly came out of no where to be a solid contributor. Someone like, say, Hedo Turkuglo last season. If any of the seemingly millions of preseason prognosticators had him pegged as the winner of the Most Improved Player award, they should get some sort of award. Maybe a box of Hedo’s namesake, Turkish Delight?

So, as handicapping this award is mostly impossible, I’m going to simply give you a short list of players to keep an eye on this year, and then pick the player I think has the best shot at taking home the hardware. But, given the volatile nature of this award, I’m sure this list will look pretty stupid come year’s end.

Rajon Rondo

Al Thornton

Randy Foye

Rodney Stuckey

Amir Johnson

Tyrus Thomas

Devin Harris

Thad Young

JR Smith

MY VOTE

1. Al Thornton

2. Tyrus Thomas

3. Randy Foye

Executive of the Year

The Winner

Kevin Pritchard

This one was over before it even started. If for some unknown reason you’ve been living under a rock and don’t believe me, just think back to where this team was 2 ½ years ago (worst record in the league, a roster full of thugs, and no hope), and where they stand now (a roster full of young, talented, upstanding citizens, and more hope than you can shake a stick at). Put a fork in it, as this award is d.o.n.e.

MY VOTE

1. Kevin Pritchard

2. Kevín Pritchárd

3. Mr. Pritch Slap

So, there you have it, the 1st Annual Raef Is About Power NBA Season Preview. I'm sure we will all look back fondly on this epic 3 part series at seasons end, and laugh hysterically at the shortsightedness, followed by quickly erasing any evidence of it's existence from my memory. But, hey, maybe I'll get one right. If that's the case, be prepared for an insufferable off-season of extremly overexuberant gloating and and hours upon hours of blatantly basking in my own glory.

NBA Season Preview Part II: The Eastern Conference

Disclaimer: This “preview” (and I use the term loosely) is very off the cuff, and contains virtually no research. It’s simply my gut feelings regarding this upcoming NBA season. I tried to be “Fair & Balanced”, but as Fox News has shown, that’s usually a sign that biases are running rampant.

In case you missed it, be sure to check out Part I: The Western Conference Preview.

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

1. Celtics (58-24) – The Celtics are almost certainly going to suffer from the post-championship let down. They shot out of the gate last year because they were comprised of team brimming with hungry vets. This year, they know they can take it a bit easier and save themselves for the playoffs. Of course, with the maniacal Kevin Garnett leading the charge, I wouldn’t exactly count on the Celtics pussy-footing their way through the regular season. Another year on the calendar and an improved East will make winning 60+ a tall order, but make no mistake; the Celtics are still the class of the NBA. On a side note: Thank god they didn’t sign Darius Miles. Not just for saving the Blazers cap room next year, but can you honestly imagine Darius Miles potentially being an NBA Champion? Gross.
   


2. Cavaliers (53-29) – LeBron finally has a buddy that can play NBA basketball! Hooray for Ohioans! (Ohioites? Ohioers?) Mo Williams isn’t a world beater, but he’s a pretty good basketball player, and will make defenses pay for keying on Lyndon B. All they need now is a post presence with a pulse and to replace Mike Brown with a real coach, ASAP. If Eric Snow isn’t the coach of this team by next June, I’m gonna be pissed.
   


3. Pistons (52-30) – Another year, another Pistons team looking forward to a magical run to the “promised land” (aka the Eastern Conference Finals). While they may be old, they’re far from broken down. They also have a nice infusion of youth with young studs like Rodney Stuckey, Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell holding down the bench for the cagey vets. They even jettisoned perpetual playoff bridesmaid Flip Saunders and give the reigns to an up and coming “players coach” in Michael Curry. With a veteran squad, that might be a good move. Or a disaster. I’m leaning toward the good side, but I’m not ready to say it’s gonna make much difference if/when they come across the Celtics or Cavs. Unless of course the NBA takes a page from soccer and forgoes overtime in favor of a HORSE competition. In that case, Rasheed and the Pistons are my new Eastern Conference favorites.
   


4. Magic (48-34) – As my predicted record indicates, I’m not foreseeing the Magic being the 4th best team in the East, just holding off the Heat for the Southwest division crown. Yes, they still have Superman, Turkish Delight and the $114 Million Dollar Man, and they’ve made a couple of minor, but significant, roster changes. However, I’m a little disconcerted by their lack of a shooting guard. I mean, they’re actually considering inserting JJ Redick into the rotation. THAT is what I call desperate. Of course, I learned long ago to never cross Ron Jeremy (I don’t want to talk about it. Seriously.), so I refuse to drop them below the 4 seed.
   


5. 76ers (51-31) – This is an intriguing team. They have a very nice mix of young and veteran talent. Assuming Elton Brand is fully healed and Thad Young can continue the rapid improvement he showed last season, this team looks like it could make a run at the East crown. Unfortunately, they’ll probably take a little bit to get fully in synch, and there are 3 teams who I think are clearly better than them at this point. However, once the playoffs roll around, they should be ready to go. One thing I notice about the roster is that I can’t see a single person being disruptive. Not one. They all seem like genuinely nice guys who are unselfish. Even Mo Cheeks as the coach. I can almost imagine them putting a quarter in a collection can every time someone swears at practice.
   


6. Raptors (50-32) – Yet another Eastern Conference team who added a savvy vet. It should be interesting to see how Jermaine O’Neal fits in next to Chris Bosh. They could be the perfect compliment, or they could get in each other’s way. I’m thinking it’ll work for the most part, thanks in large part to a full season of Jose Calderon at the point. Also because Chris Bosh looks remarkably like a raptor himself. Originally, I had the Bosh’s pegged to win 49 games. I upped it to 50 because I remembered their secret weapon. I foresee an opposing teams game winning shot going errant after the shooter gets temporarily blinded by the glare off of the 12-head. I’m thinking a karmic makeup game on February 18th, at home versus Cleveland.
   


7. Heat (45-37) – Maybe I’m getting swept up in the hype, maybe I’m not. But, either way, I’m looking for the Heat to bounce back. A healthy DWade, a full season of Shawn Marion, and rookie extraordinaire Michael Beasley form possibly one of the best trios in the game. Unfortunately, this isn’t a 3-on-3 basketball league, and they also have to trot out the 6-8 Udonis Haslem at center and what appears to be the winner of some bizarre “You Get To Start!” fan contest, Chris Quinn, at point guard. Crap. I’m starting to have my doubts about this pick now. Dwyane Wade better be channeling the 2006 NBA Finals (or at least employing the officiating crew year round).
   


8. Bulls (40-42) – This spot is less about liking this Bulls team, and more about having no faith in the other Eastern Conference teams to pull it together enough to make the playoffs. While this Bulls team has talent, they are also almost the exact same team that spent the entire 2007-08 season crapping themselves up and down the court for 90% of the season. Of course, they now have a coach that they apparently don’t hate, and they have #1 Draft Pick Derrick Rose running the show instead of the elfish Kirk Hinrich. So, even if Ben Gordon spends the entire season waffling between whether to pout or play his ass off for a new contract, I still think this team will bounce back some this season. And just because I like being an asshole from time to time, this is where I bring up the whole “I wonder how much better this team would be with LaMarcus Aldridge instead of Tyrus Thomas and The Wolverine (Viktor Khryapa)?” Answer: "Lots."

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9. Pacers (37-45) – I have no idea why I have the Pacers almost making the playoffs. They weren’t exactly good last year. I hate 2 of their top 3 players with a passion (TJ Ford and Mike Dunleavy Jr.). And they brought in former Blazer Jarret Jack to shore up the PG spot. That’s great if by “shore up” you mean “step out of bounds in the corner for no reason,” which was a key part to Jarret’s game last season. That being said, they do still have Danny Granger who is a flat out stud. If he can just get away from this sad-sack bunch and get on a real team, someone might take notice. Luckily, as of this writing, he’s yet to sign a long term extension with the Pacers, so there might be hope yet.
   


10. Hawks (36-46) – The Hawks finally did it last year. No, not pop their New Millennium playoff cherry. The Hawks finally didn’t screw up a lottery pick. While they were no doubt bummed to juuuust miss out on the Oden/Durant lottery festivities last year, they at least didn’t compound the mistake by taking Yi Jinlian. No, Al Horford has proven to be quite a solid player, and given the Hawks lack of a post presence in years past, the Hawks organization couldn’t be happier. However, being the Hawks, they just couldn’t help screwing up somewhere, and they let underrated swingman Josh Childress walk away from contract negotiations to sign with Greek club Olympiakos. Oops. So much for building off last year’s success with their young core. It’s ok, I’m sure Mike Bibby’s Kermit the Frog impersonations will be a big hit at the end of season barbeque in mid-April.
    


11. Wizards (35-47) – No Arenas for a few months. No Haywood for the season. No chance at the playoffs in the mythical “improved Eastern Conference.” That’s how it works. Of course they do still have Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, but they’ll need more than that. If Andray Blatche or Javale McGee steps up inside, and DeShawn Stevenson and/or Nick Young can help on the perimeter, they might surprise. And if they get REALLY desperate, they can bring in Oleksiy “The White Hole” Pecherov. Word of his passing allergy has been quietly circulating for years, but until I got a chance to watch him play extended minutes this preseason, I had chalked another one up in the name of hyperbole. However, I watch him play a solid 8 minutes of game time the other day and came away positively giddy. He managed to touch the ball 9 times, putting up 7 shots, turning the ball over once, and passing to a teammate one solitary time. For those scoring at home, that’s an astounding 1:9 pass to touch ratio. Now THAT is someone earning their nickname!
    


12. Knicks (31-51) – Well, it at least appears that the Knicks are trying to field a competitive basketball team. That’s an improvement over the sado-masochistic Isaiah Thomas administration. Donnie Walsh and Mike D’Antoni sure have their work cut out for them, but they do seem to be righting the ship a bit already. Relegating underperforming pouters Stephon Marbury and Eddy Curry to the bench is the kind of ballsy, take charge move that was sorely lacking under Thomas. This season, expect to see the rotation to be based more on “basketball skill” and less on “contract size.” What a novel idea. Hopefully that doesn’t keep me from seeing more fantastic plays like this.
    
13. Bobcats (28-54) – Who cares? I know I don’t. Let’s move on.


14. Nets (23-59) – The Nets have Devin Harris and Vince Carter. That’s cool. They also have this tall Chinese guy who was the #6 pick in last year’s draft and seems to be popular. They also have, um… shit. To put it nicely, this team is going to struggle. To put it honestly, this team is going to suck. At least they’re moving to Brooklyn soon… oh, wait, what was that? That doesn’t look like it’s happening? Well, at least they’ll still be able to sign LeBron in … oh yeah. No Brooklyn, no LeBron. Well, they still have Vince Carter. He’ll be fun to watch up until they drop out of the playoff race... In mid-November [sigh]. N-E-T-S. Nets! Nets! Nets!
    


15. Bucks (19-63) – The Bucks are in what is commonly referred to as “rebuilding mode.” Generally, that’s when a team gets rid of every player on their roster who is good now, but won’t be as good in 2 or 3 years, and replaces them with the cheapest replacements possible. This Bucks team is taking a different approach. They traded two young, talented players in Mo Williams and Yi Jinlian, and brought back an aging veteran in Richard Jefferson in hopes of staying competitive. So, while on paper, they appear to have a solid starting 5 with Jefferson, Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, and Luke Ridnour, they have one glaring weakness. None of them can play defense. Throw in a bench that looks like the starting lineup for the NBDL All-Star game, and you have a recipe for failure. Of course, when you’re “rebuilding”, failure is the name of the game. Enjoy the “success” while you can Bucks fan!

EASTERN CONFERNECE PLAYOFFS

Round 1
(1)Celtics vs. (8)Bulls – The Bulls end their season of resurgence in style. A resounding sweep at the hands of the defending champs. Celtics in 4
(2)Cavaliers vs. (7)Heat– The NBA hits the jackpot on this one. Wade v. LeBron in a round 1 matchup? Yatzee! Wade should singlehandedly keep this series interesting thanks to Mike Brown and ability to take a team full of NBA players and make them look as if they are running a 3rd grade offense. Unfortunately for Miami, LeBron and his foot soldiers are too much for Miami’s 3 NBA-level players to overcome. Cavaliers in 6
(3)Pistons vs. (6)Raptors – This series could be interesting, as the Raptors have a pretty solid group of players, with a nice mixture of young studs and seasoned vets. However, in the end, the Pistons have more of each, and a whole boat-full of confidence after 6 straight trips to at least the Eastern Conference Finals. Experience wins out in this one. Pistons in 6
(4)Magic vs. (5)76ers – Dwight Howard and the Magic surprised everyone last season, and grabbed the 4th seed and a first round series victory. This year should produce a similar seed, but a different result. Some of that is due to my ascertain that they won’t have home court to go with that fancy 4 seed, as the non-division-champion 76ers will likely end up with a better record and thus home-court advantage. Most of it, however, is because the 76ers are a better team at almost every position. 76ers in 6

Round 2
(1)Celtics vs. (5)76ers – Much like last year’s Celtics-Pistons series, this matchup would feature Boston’s Big 3 vs. a much more balanced team, lacking a bonafide superstar. Unfortunately for the 76ers, superstars win in the playoffs, and the Celtics have 3. Celtics in 6
(2)Cavaliers vs. (3)Pistons – Just what the Pistons wanted, a chance to avenge the thrashing LeBron handed them 2 years ago in the ECF’s. Of course, that means all the key components in that series are 2 years older, wiser and more mature. That’s good for the now 24 year old LeBron. Not so much for the aging Pistons. Cavaliers in 6

Eastern Conference Finals
(1)Celtics vs. (2)Cavaliers – Here it is folks. A rematch of last year’s fantastic Eastern Conference Semifinals. LeBron came only a few scant points from almost single-handedly taking down the eventual champs. Now, with Mo Williams and an Olympic gold medal in tow, he’s back and ready for revenge. However, I don’t think the Celtics are quite done yet. Plus, as mediocre as Doc Rivers is on the Celtics sideline, he’s a certifiable Red Aurbach clone when compared to the coaching travesty on the Cavs bench. Celtics in 7

2008-09 Eastern Conference Champions: Boston Celtics

***BONUS***

NBA Championship
(1)Celtics vs. (2)Rockets – The NBA jumps for joy! The defending champion Celtics, complete with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and decades upon decades of NBA glory versus Tracy McGrady, Ron Artest and the guaranteed 1 billion viewers that come with Yao Ming’s quest for an NBA Championship. As long as Ron Ron doesn’t try to punch a fan, or release a rap album, David Stern would probably have the first documented heart attack caused directly by overaggressive and prolonged fist-pumping.

As for the actual series itself, it might not appeal to all fans, but it sure would make it a battle for the NBA crown. Easily the two most physical teams in the game today, this series would very likely feature multiple games where neither team hits triple digits. It would be a rough and tumble defensive slugfest, where it would most likely come down to who got hot at the right time. I’m putting my money on Pierce, Garnett and Allen to come through in the end. They’ve proven to me time and again that they know how to make it happen when it counts. And it doesn’t count any more than in the NBA Finals. Celtics in 7

2008-09 NBA Champions: Boston Celtics