Monday, October 13, 2008

Managing Expectations

Now that I've had a couple days to come down from my Blazer induced high, I think I might be able to begin to put things in perspective.

I finished my last post literally seconds before I headed out to watch the first Blazers preseason game, and was so amped up for my first chance to see Oden and Rudy and the rest of the team I'd been following religiously throughout the off-season that I could hardly contain myself. This was going to be my first chance to see them all in real, honest, NBA action. I had visions of Oden dunking on unsuspecting mortals, and Rudy flying through the air catching alley-oops with ease. I pictured LaMarcus and Roy being their usual outstanding selves, and the Blazers to flash their potential brilliance throughout the night.

Now, did I EXPECT that to happen? Well, sorta. I knew I was on the optimistic side of things, but it wasn't like I was expecting perfection. I knew there would be growing pains. I knew we'd play 3 or 4 guys that have virtually no chance of even making the roster. I also knew that with all the hype surrounding the team (Oden and Rudy in particular) I was bound to be let down at some point. I mean, it's the FIRST PRESEASON game, right?

Well, somehow, some way, this young Blazers team performed even better than I could have ever imagined in that first game together. Oden dunked on a few heads, and got to throw one back in the face of Spencer Hawes (a sight that will never, ever, get old). Rudy exploded with the most incredible 6 points and 5 assists in NBA history, including being on the giving and receiving end of multiple alley-oops, throwing a bounce pass through Jason Thompson's legs for a dunk, and making Martell Webster look like the second coming of Kenny "Sky" Walker (We'll assume that's a good thing for the moment). All the while, Brandon was being Brandon, LaMarcus overcame a slow start to lead the team in scoring, Joel grabbed a "quiet" 12 boards off the bench, and of all people Sergio Rodriguez hit 3 3-pointers in the 2nd quarter alone! (Which I believe is 4 more than he hit all of last year. Figure that one out.)

Simply put, it was everything every Blazer fan wanted to see, and much, much more. The Rose Garden was rocking all night long, with chants of "Rudy!" seemingly popping up every few moments, just for the fun of it. It was preseason Blazer nirvana. If people were cautiously optimistic heading in to the game, they were unabashedly cocky leaving it.

Of course, tossing caution to the wolves comes with it's drawbacks as well.

Now, all the people preaching patience with this young team are all of a sudden predicting a deep playoff run THIS season. Those who thought a division title was a possibility are now starting to whisper the C-word. I've actually heard people debating the likelihood of Rudy, Oden and Bayless finishing 1-2-3 in the ROY voting, with Rudy sneaking into the MVP discussion!

Now, I'm one of the biggest Blazer homers you'll find, but that talk is practically bordering on clinical insanity! It was one (albeit impressive) PRESEASON GAME, people! Of course, it was impossible to NOT get caught up in the excitement of the moment. It was undeniable. The Blazers were back!

However, when expectations get raised so high right out of the gate, there is the inevitable let down that comes soon after. For Blazer fans, that let down came exactly 24 hours later. They looked sloppy, young, and inexperienced in an ugly home loss to a mediocre Warriors team. Sure, Oden, Rudy and LaMarcus still had their moments (while Roy sat this one out), but on the whole, it served as a stark reminder that talent and potential aren't necessarily the most important things when it comes to winning in the NBA. This team still has a ways to go before it's ready to compete at the highest levels night in and night out.

Since then, the team has been nicked up a bit, and has put forth a couple more up and down performances. Greg Oden has looked anywhere from absolutely dominating, to tired, lost and in over his head. Meanwhile, instant fan favorite Rudy Fernandez hasn't played due to a sprained ankle suffered in the loss to Golden State. Roy has played sporadically, and Aldridge has been largely unchallenged in his short stints on the court.

So, what can we take from all this? Well, not much really. Lost in all the hullabaloo of the first game was the reality that this is, indeed, preseason basketball. While each team is undoubtedly trying their hardest to win the games, it's more about trying new lineups, getting used to your new teammates, and simple conditioning than it is about winning and losing.

While some might be disillusioned by the inconsistency in Greg Oden's scoring ("why is he shooting all those jump hooks?!!? Dunk it Greg!"), or in his apparent lack of NBA-level conditioning ("why can't he play more than 20 minutes?"), you have to see these games for what they really are. Glorified scrimmages.

In essence, we're talking about practice, folks. (Practice?!?!!) Yes, Mr. Iverson, practice.

So, while you can definitely learn things from these preseason games (Greg Oden is big. Rudy can dunk. Etc.), try not to get too high or low from them. What we see on the court now is a far cry from what we'll see opening night in the Staples Center. So, if you want to prevent yourself from having a Blazer induced coronary, I'd recommend sitting back, enjoying the show, and giving this incredibly young team at least a few weeks of real, honest to goodness NBA regular season basketball before you start making assumptions as to what this team (and it's players) are capable of. You'll thank me later.

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