Tuesday, October 28, 2008

NBA Preview Part III: Awards

Disclaimer: This “preview” (and I use the term loosely) is very off the cuff, and contains virtually no research. It’s simply my gut feelings regarding this upcoming NBA season. I tried to be “Fair & Balanced”, but as Fox News has shown, that’s usually a sign that biases are running rampant. On that note, here are my thoughts on the 2008-09 NBA Postseason Awards. Enjoy.


Note: All awards will be outlined using a “tier system”. Then, at the end, I’ll use my mighty prognostication skills to predict what I think the end of season ballot might look like. Not too complicated. Just follow closely and try not to get hurt.


In case you missed it, be sure to check out Part I: The Western Conference and Part II: The Eastern Conference.




Most Valuable Player


Front-runners

Chris Paul

LeBron James


To me, it’s a two man race. Both of these guys deserved the award last year, and both are only going to be better this year. If I had to guess, it’ll come down to whose team has the better record. My bet is on CP3’s Hornets to finish a couple games ahead of LBJ’s Cavs, so I have him as a very tentative start on the pole position. Of course, the wild card is if LeBron pulls out some sort of nasty stat line in the 32-8-8 range and simply statistically overpowers Paul. Not exactly out of the question. Although, also, don’t discount the revenge factor after LBJ beat CP3 at his own Bowling Challenge. CP3 takes his bowling seriously. Very seriously.


The Stalwarts

Kevin Garnett

kobe bryant

Tim Duncan


All three of these players have won the award in the past and have been absolute locks for the All-NBA 1st or 2nd team since the turn of the century. Also, each player’s team is expected to be a favorite to finish the season with the best record and/or an NBA championship. Mathematically speaking, it breaks down like this (Superstar Player + Championship Level Team = MVP Candidate). Simple as that.


The Also-rans

Dwyane Wade

Dwight Howard

Amare Stoudamire


To be perfectly honest, I don’t think anyone outside of the Top 5 listed above have much of a chance. Not because there aren’t any other players deserving of consideration, but simply because there are only so many championship caliber teams. Wade, Howard and Stoudamire are all capable of putting up eye-popping, MVP-caliber numbers, but will likely do so on a team that finishes in the 4-8 range in their respective conferences. So, while individually they might deserve serious consideration, I just can’t see them beating out any of the 5 players listed above, who all figure to be on significantly better teams than any of the squads represented by this trio.


Keep An Eye On

Deron Williams

Chris Bosh

Elton Brand

Brandon Roy


Let’s get this out there right now. None of these guys are going to win the MVP this year. It’s just not gonna happen. But, I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the 3 youngsters (Williams, Bosh, and Roy) take home the award sometime in the next decade. So, while they might be a couple years away from seriously contending for the leagues top individual award, a surprise Top 2 finish by the Jazz, Raptors, 76ers or Blazers could give their stars a shot at cracking the discussion. Brand gets thrown in the conversation because he’ll get a majority of the credit if the 76ers make the jump to an elite team (and rightly so).


MY VOTE

1. LeBron James

2. Chris Paul

3. Kevin Garnett

4. Dwyane Wade

5. Tim Duncan


Rookie of the Year


Leading Contenders

Greg Oden

Michael Beasley


This season’s Rookie of the Year award looks to be a classic example of Stats vs. Wins. Everyone expects (and rightly so) for Beasley to put up easily the best stats of all the rookies. He’s the most NBA ready player, coming off one the best freshman seasons in NCAA history, and is on a team that will sorely need both his scoring and his rebounding prowess. Given the past history of the award, the biggest stat stuffer is a virtual lock for taking home the prize, and that should be Beasley. However, if anyone can overcome that perceived bias, it’s Oden. He’s been hyped as a once-in-a-generation center who can affect the game greatly on both ends of the court. He’s also the centerpiece of a team many have tabbed as the most likely “breakout” candidate for this season. If the Blazers meet or exceed expectations, and Oden proves to be a big reason for that, this might be the season the ROY voters buck the historical trend and recognize the rookie who impacts the game beyond the box score.


The Also-Rans

Derrick Rose

OJ Mayo

Rudy Fernandez

Kevin Love

Eric Gordon


With this being universally declared a 2 man race, I find it hard to imagine any of these players walking away with the rookie hardware. Of course, having said that, there’s always the chance that everyone and their brother is wrong. Heck, the more these supposed “experts” narrow the debate down to Beasley and Oden, the more I get the feeling that we’re in for a surprise. That being said, I wouldn’t bet a single cent of my own money on anyone besides the frontrunners. So, consider this the leading contenders for the #3 spot on the ballot.


MY VOTE

1. Greg Oden

2. Michael Beasley

3. Derrick Rose

4. OJ Mayo

5. Rudy Fernandez


Defensive Player of the Year


The Stalwarts

Kevin Garnett

Ron Artest

Marcus Camby

Tim Duncan


If Ben Wallace were still alive, he’d be on this list as well. It’s basically the 4 (5 if you count the late Big Ben) players who have won (or in Duncan’s case, should have won) this award over the past decade. Since this award is based more off of reputation than any of the others, it’s safe to assume that one of these 4 will be the heavy favorite come seasons end.


The Young Guns

Dwight Howard

Chris Paul

Rajon Rondo

Josh Smith


Of course, at some point, the old regime has to give away to the young guys. If that were to happen this year, these are the guys I’d peg as the most likely successors. Howard and Paul are already among the NBA’s elite, and are dominant at the defensive measuring stick categories usually associated with their positions (Blocks and Steals, respectively). Meanwhile, Rondo used the Celtics Championship run to build his rep as one of the up and coming defensive game changers in the NBA, and Smith is just an all around stat whore on the defensive end. So, if someone is going to break through and shake things up in the DPOY race, I’d put my money on one of these 4.


MY VOTE

1. Kevin Garnett

2. Ron Artest

3. Chris Paul

4. Tim Duncan

5. Dwight Howard


Coach of the Year


Front-runners

Nate McMillan

Jerry Sloan

Maurice Cheeks

Rick Adelman


The Coach of the Year award is just as much of a team award as a coaching award. The winners generally fall in to two categories: Either an up and coming team who surpasses expectations or a team that just flat out dominates the competition. Usually the People are already calling for break out seasons from Portland and Philly, so Nate McMillan and Mo Cheeks get on the preseason short list. Also included is sentimental favorite Jerry Sloan, who’s Utah team should be near the top of the standings, and is long deserving of the accolade. And, rounding out the Frontrunners, is Rick Adelman, who should receive serious consideration if he’s able to handle Ron Artest and lead Houston to the heights of the loaded West.


The Stalwarts

Phil Jackson

Byron Scott

Gregg Popovich


All three are likely to be leading playoff teams to lofty heights, and all 3 have the pedigree and reputation to take home the prize if their teams are able to come out on top of the West.


Dark Horses

Terry Porter

Rick Carlisle

Eric Spoelstra

Mike D’Antoni


There’s always a surprise candidate in the race for COY, and these four have been put in charge of teams with expectations that have greatly diminished over the past year. That means that they have rosters with enough talent to compete, but just need to make it happen. If one of these guys can make it work, expect them to get serious mention come award season.


No

Mike Brown


In case you didn’t know, I’m not a fan of Mike Brown’s work on the sidelines. I’ve seen better offenses run by city league teams without a coach. I’m pretty sure he knows some dirty little secret about LeBron and is blackmailing him to keep his job. That would at least explain why he always looks like someone is about to tell on him when he’s “coaching.” (I say “coaching”, because it’s obvious LeBron makes all the decisions out on the court.)


Most Improved Player


Of all the awards, this is easily the most difficult to predict. Each year there are a host of young players who seem poised to make the proverbial “jump” and become a star. These are the players who get the bulk of preseason attention for this award. However, it seems almost every season the eventual winner is someone who seemingly came out of no where to be a solid contributor. Someone like, say, Hedo Turkuglo last season. If any of the seemingly millions of preseason prognosticators had him pegged as the winner of the Most Improved Player award, they should get some sort of award. Maybe a box of Hedo’s namesake, Turkish Delight?


So, as handicapping this award is mostly impossible, I’m going to simply give you a short list of players to keep an eye on this year, and then pick the player I think has the best shot at taking home the hardware. But, given the volatile nature of this award, I’m sure this list will look pretty stupid come year’s end.


Rajon Rondo

Al Thornton

Randy Foye

Rodney Stuckey

Amir Johnson

Tyrus Thomas

Devin Harris

Thad Young

JR Smith


MY VOTE

1. Al Thornton

2. Tyrus Thomas

3. Randy Foye


Executive of the Year


The Winner

Kevin Pritchard


This one was over before it even started. If for some unknown reason you’ve been living under a rock and don’t believe me, just think back to where this team was 2 ½ years ago (worst record in the league, a roster full of thugs, and no hope), and where they stand now (a roster full of young, talented, upstanding citizens, and more hope than you can shake a stick at). Put a fork in it, as this award is d.o.n.e.


MY VOTE

1. Kevin Pritchard

2. Kevín Pritchárd

3. Mr. Pritch Slap


So, there you have it, the 1st Annual Raef Is About Power NBA Season Preview. I'm sure we will all look back fondly on this epic 3 part series at seasons end, and laugh hysterically at the shortsightedness, followed by quickly erasing any evidence of it's existence from my memory. But, hey, maybe I'll get one right. If that's the case, be prepared for an insufferable off-season of extremly overexuberant gloating and and hours upon hours of blatantly basking in my own glory.

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