Monday, October 27, 2008

NBA Season Preview Part I: The Western Conference

With opening night mere hours away, I thought this would be the perfect time to go on record and state my predictions for the season. I’m going to be unrolling my “NBA Preview” in 3 parts throughout the day. First up is the Western Conference Preview, where I’ll simply predict the order of finish out West, complete with projected records, and what I think will be in store once the playoffs come. That will be followed by a similar preview for the Eastern Conference (which comes with a bonus Finals prediction... yay!), and finally the third installment will be regarding awards and other various predictions.

This “preview” (and I use the term loosely) is very off the cuff, and contains almost zero research. It’s simply my gut feelings regarding this upcoming NBA season. I tried to be “Fair & Balanced”, but as Fox News has shown, that’s usually a sign that biases are running rampant. On that note, here are my thoughts on the 2008-09 NBA’s Western Conference. Enjoy.

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

  1. Hornets (58-24) – They just missed the top spot last year by one game. Chris Paul was already nosing his way into Best Player on the Planet argument last season, and is only going to get better. Now, with a nice playoff run under their belt and another year of seasoning, the formerly young Hornets will be ready to finish the job. Oh, according to every media outlet known to man, James Posey is some sort of magical unicorn or something.

  2. Rockets (56-26) – Take a tough, physical, defensive minded team and add Ron Artest, and you get a brutal matchup for just about anybody. Obviously this assumes a healthy season from Yao and McGrady, but even without Yao they were able to rattle off 22 in a row last year. The addition of Artest should allow the team to rely less on their two All-Stars, and potentially keep them healthier in the process. This does, however, assume Artest doesn’t try to eat Shane Battier’s head (mmm… Ruffles).

  3. lakers (55-27) – Yeah, they’ll be good, but I just don’t get all the endless hype. They’re still soft, and their bench is INCREDIBLY overrated. Seriously, since when is a bench of Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Vladamir Radmonovic and Chris Mihm considered good? If I were a laker fan (gross), I wouldn’t trust anybody other than Farmar and maaaaybe Vuja-chick to play more than 8 seconds without crapping themselves the moment the ball is inbounded (“uh-ohhhhhhhhh!”).

  4. Jazz (52-30) – This team seems very much in danger of being the new Phoenix Suns. Always in the mix and near the top of the conference, but just not good enough to take it the extra mile. Of course once Carlos Boozer insists he wants to stay in Utah (and has no interest in being traded), then promptly bolts to Miami, they’ll cement themselves in this role. I’d like to think this constant state of limbo is their punishment calling themselves the Jazz and residing in Utah. Is music even legal there?

  5. Spurs (53-29) – The Spurs are gonna be a team to watch this year. With Ginobili sidelined for as much as 2 months to start the season, and a returning cast of characters who look like they’d fit in more at bingo hall than a basketball court, they are a prime candidate to stumble out of the gate. However, you know that once the season gets going, and they have their full cast of characters, this team is gonna make a lot of noise. Usually, the “Team Nobody Wants to Play” come playoff time is some young upstart squad. Not this year. Look for the Spurs to work their way up the standings after the All-Star break and put themselves in position to take down one of the West’s top teams in Round 1.

  6. Suns (49-33) – OK, so the Shaquille O’Neal Experiment didn’t exactly work out like the Suns had hoped, but it wasn’t exactly trading for Jason Kidd, either. I’m thinking with a full training camp to adjust, a slower pace, and an alleged new focus on defense, Shaquille might prove to be a better fit than he seemed last year. They are still a bit on the old side, and definitely not the Western Conference power that they’ve been in years past, but I think they just might have one last run in them. And by “run”, I mean “playoff appearance”.

  7. Blazers (48-34) – Every single part of myself wants to put the Blazers in the Top 4. Last season they split the season series with both the Hornets and lakers, and beat the Jazz 3 out of 4. Now, with the addition of Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez, and another year under the belts of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, I see no physical way that this team isn’t significantly improved. However, with a daunting first month, it should be a bit of a learning experience in the beginning. I don’t see it happening, but if they can finish the first month above .500, watch out. Once Oden acclimates himself to the NBA game and gets back into “basketball shape”, we should really see this team take off and show what the future may hold. Basically, I expect the Blazers team that finishes the season to be much more dangerous than the inexperienced bunch that starts it.

  8. Mavericks (44-38) – It’s pretty obvious at this point that the Jason Kidd trade was a bad decision. Even if Kidd can muster one last hurrah, this year’s Mavericks squad just doesn’t have the horses. While scoring alone won’t win a championship, points are a necessity to win basketball games. At this point in their careers, only Dirk, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry are even average NBA scorers. But hey, from perusing his campaign notes, apparently they signed John McCain in the offseason. Maybe he can provide a youthful spark off the bench when Jason Kidd needs a breather.

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  1. Nuggets (39-43) – With the decline of some of the West’s “old guard” such as Phoenix and Dallas, you’d think it’d be time for a talented team like the Nuggets, who won 50 games last year, to make a push into the Western elite. Instead, one of the worst defensive teams in the league traded the Defensive Player of the Year (Marcus Camby) for, well, basically nothing. Luckily they still hold the title of Most Tattooed Starting Lineup in NBA History. So, they got that going for them, which is nice.

  2. Clippers (36-46) – Only 4 players remain from last year’s team. Out goes Elton Brand and Corey Maggette, and in comes Baron Davis and Marcus Camby. Seems like a reasonably even trade. Add in rookie Eric Gordon, and free agent acquisition Ricky Davis to holdovers Chris Kaman, Al Thornton, Cuttino Mobely and Tim Thomas, and you got yourself a reason for optimism. That’s a lot of talented players on one team. Unfortunately for Clippers fans, a roster full of “chuckers” to go with 2 elite rebounders isn’t generally a model for success. Is it possible to lead the league in rebounds and still be outrebounded for the season? With the amount of shots this bunch is likely to put up, I think these Clippers can do it.

  3. Warriors (33-49) – Another team facing a lot of prominent roster change. With Baron Davis leaving town, it was time for Monta Ellis to cement himself as a superstar. Unfortunately, he prefers riding mopeds to making millions of dollars playing basketball. That leaves them with a point guard more known for assisting in laptop thieving than assisting baskets. At least they have “Crazy Steve” Jackson as a calming veteran influence on the court. Enjoy that.

  4. Timberwolves (33-49) – The Timberpuppies are quietly building a nice squadron of young players, and even doing so with Kevin McHale still acting as the GM. Impressive. Looking over their roster, and it reminds me a bit of a JV version of the Blazers stacked roster. With Al Jefferson, Kevin Love and Randy Foye playing the roles of Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy respectively. Throw in Mike Miller providing veteran leadership, and now they are only missing two things before they can really start to threaten the Western elite: A bonafide superstar and a PG. At this point, they’re still hoping Randy Foye can take care of both of these needs. The jury is still out on that. What the jury isn’t out on is whether or not Minnesota will be adding another lottery pick to the mix next year. If they can somehow turn that pick into, say, Ricky Rubio, then they might be on to something. Of course, that could be a pipe dream after they once again agree to sign Joe Smith to a "secret" 6 year, $75 million contract and lose all their draft picks for the next decade. For comedy purposes, I really hope this happens.

  5. Grizzlies (26-56) – Gay-Mayo will dominate the city of Memphis for years to come. Sure, that might not generally fly in the south, but trust me, it’s a lot better than it sounds. The Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Mike Conley trio is one of the most talented young trio’s in the game, and should be quite formidable in years to come. But, they’re still quite young, and the West is still loaded, so they’ll have to wait another year or two to really make some noise. In the meantime, they do have Mr. Adriana Lima, making the player’s wives section of the FedEx Forum the hottest ticket in town.

  6. Thunder (22-60) – Just as I was getting used to the OKC TBD’s they go out and take a page from the MLS handbook (titled: “How To Stay Irrelevant Using Crappy Team Names") and renamed the team the THUNDER. Seriously? The Iowa Energy and Sioux Falls Skyforce think that’s a stupid name. Of course, after looking over their roster, it’s easy to see how they thought they were naming the newest NBDL team.

  7. Kings (20-62) – The Kings are gonna suck. It's that simple. Kevin Martin is good. Brad Miller was good. Nobody else should be starting on an NBA team. However, they do have Bobby Brown, so “Humpin’ Around” will not be tolerated. Sweet.

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS

ROUND 1
(1)Hornets vs. (8)Mavs – We saw this same matchup last season in round one, and it was a Hornets sweep. With NO getting better, and Dallas in decline, I think it’s fair to say the Mavs ain’t winning won this year, either. Hornets in 4
(2)Rockets vs. (7)Blazers – This is where I really wanted to unleash the homer in me, and pick the Blazers for a first round upset. Unfortunately they suck against the Rockets, and adding Ron Artest (the one defender that has consistently irritated the bejesus out of Brandon Roy), I can’t imagine a worse matchup. Sadly, I might be overly optimistic with the 5 games prediction. Rockets in 5
(3)lakers vs. (6)Suns – Another series where I was just dying to pick an upset. But, again, I just can’t see it playing out like that. Unless Shaq has invented a time machine, the fakers are taking this one. lakers in 6
(4) Jazz vs. (5)Spurs – Since I predicted the Spurs would finish with a better record, this 5 over 4 prediction is hardly an upset. Basically, I’m thinking the Jazz are a bit overrated, and the ancient Spurs have one last run in them. Spurs in 6

ROUND 2
(1)Hornets vs. (5)Spurs – Last year the Spurs prevailed in one of the most entertaining series of the season (which is saying something, since it involved the Spurs). This year, I think the Chris Paul and Co. will use James “Unicorn” Posey’s magical touch to officially slam the door shut on the Spurs dynasty. Thanks guys. Spurs in 7
(2)Rockets vs. (3)lakers – Everyone likes to gobble on the coin purse of the this years lakers, because they ran through the West last year, and now welcome back Andrew Bynum. Unfortunately, they’re still a team full of pussies, and will get manhandled by a physically dominant team like last years Celtics, or… this year’s Rockets. Rockets in 6

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
(2)Rockets vs. (1)Hornets – Man, I really hope this series happens. I’m not saying that’s why I’m picking it to happen, but looking at the way things have played out, I can’t imagine a better matchup that doesn’t include a miracle run by the Blazers. The most intriguing thing to me is that, outside of the Yao-Chandler matchup, all the top players play different positions and won’t naturally guard each other. That should make for some interesting matchups, and maybe even a superstar or two playing out of position. Nice. I’ve gone back and forth on this a couple times, but I think (barring injuries) the Rockets are just a little too talented and a lot too physical. Hornets in 7

2008-09 Western Conference Champions: Houston Rockets

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